After this week's Sustainability Goals meeting at UN Headquarters in New York, Bloomberg New Energy Finance released an analysis of the potential of off-grid solar PV and microgrids to meet the clean energy of 1 billion people currently unavailable. demand.
The report believes that there are five key factors that indicate that off-grid solar PV will play a key role in providing a common energy supply.
High grid connection costs
The most important of these factors is the cost of grid expansion. The analysis stipulates that each family can establish a connection between $266 and $2,100. In high-income areas, this is not a problem because families have the ability to pay for additional energy prices. In addition, energy prices in low-income areas will rise as grid operators must amortize facilities with modest energy consumption.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance calculates that the energy cost from a solar home system is about $1.5/kWh, or $0.29-0.77/kWh if it comes from a microgrid. The report continues to say that the electricity bill for the new connection is $1/kWh, which is higher than the energy cost of deploying the microgrid.
Huge market size
Analysts say that by 2030, the market for solar home systems and microgrids will reach $64 billion. As a result, approximately 15% of the population without electricity live in urban areas. Utilities will focus on extending the grid to these areas.
However, by mid-2020, distributed technology will build supply chains and cheaper components. In addition, at that time, competition between grid expansion and microgrid will be less economically viable. Based on these assumptions, the Bloomberg team believes that by 2030, 238 million households will receive electricity, 72 million households will use solar home systems, and 34 million households will receive energy from the microgrid.
Cheaper than expected
Bloomberg New Energy Finance analysts estimate that the general power supply market can reach $ 353 billion, almost half of the IEA's estimate on different occasions. However, Bloomberg stressed that the IEA believes that microgrids play a pivotal role in achieving universal energy supply. According to analysts, the IEA does estimate that the system cost will be higher than the cost that the market has already experienced.
The development of microgrids has been commercialized
Large oil and energy companies like Shell have an in-house team to build microgrids and sell solar home systems on a large scale. According to reports, by 2020, 6 out of the 20 largest oil and energy companies promised to provide energy services to 52 million people. Analysts emphasize that these efforts are not based on philanthropy, but on the rigorous business development plans of emerging markets.
The private sector has great potential
According to the report, the transition from centralized power generation assets to distributed off-grid systems will have a profound impact on the deployment, improvement and maintenance of power systems. This change left a gap for entrepreneurial filling. According to Bloomberg analysis, the way energy retailing and distribution can be completely remodeled and optimized. According to calculations, increasing the daytime load of agricultural activities (such as irrigation or refrigeration) can reduce the microgrid energy cost by about 18%.