In recent years, with the joint efforts of all parties, China's photovoltaic industry has made great achievements. The data shows that China's new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation has been the world's number one for five consecutive years, and its cumulative installed capacity ranks first in the world for three consecutive years. In the past two years, new production has reached 34.24 million and 53.06 million kilowatts respectively. At the end of 2017, the installed capacity of grid-connected power has accumulated more than 130 million kilowatts. Photovoltaic power generation has played an important role in promoting energy transformation.
Two major factors have contributed to the rapid growth of distributed PV
On August 2, the National Energy Administration released the construction of photovoltaics in the first half of 2018. In the first half of 2018, China's photovoltaic power generation installed capacity of 24.306 million kilowatts, compared with the same period last year, the growth rate was basically the same, of which, photovoltaic power station 12.062 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 30%; distributed photovoltaic 12.24 million kilowatts, an increase of 72%.
“In the first half of 2018, photovoltaic power plants were reduced by 30%, and distributed photovoltaics were up by 72% year-on-year. This should be said to be a trend in the future development of the photovoltaic industry.” Mr. Hai, the president of Beijing Teyi Sunshine New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., is accepting the Chinese economy. The Times reporter said in an interview.
In the view of Bohai, PV power plants are down 30% year-on-year, and distributed PV is up 72% year-on-year. There are two reasons:
First, large-scale photovoltaic power plants, especially ground-based photovoltaic power plants, do not move tens or hundreds of megawatts. The demand for funds is particularly large, which is not a small pressure on the state financial subsidies.
Second, the approval time of large-scale photovoltaic power plants is longer than that of distributed photovoltaics. Unlike distributed photovoltaics, which only need to be filed (distributed photovoltaics on industrial and commercial rooftops), large-scale photovoltaic power plants are not directly facing ordinary people. The degree of direct benefit is small compared to distributed PV.
According to the China Economic Times reporter, distributed photovoltaics are divided into two types: residential roof distribution and industrial and commercial roof distribution. Rural houses generally have independent property rights, while the roofs are generally idle, using idle resources, and can be earned without labor after installation, saving electricity costs and selling electricity revenue. At the same time, the roofs of some productive enterprises range from a few hundred square meters to tens of thousands of square meters. After installing photovoltaics on industrial and commercial rooftops, these large-scale idle sites have become valuable resources, revitalizing the fixed assets of enterprises and increasing the number of enterprises. More revenue.
“Whether enterprises can survive for 20 years, whether there are quality problems in the plant itself, whether the property rights of the plant itself are clear, etc. These are all issues that need to be considered for distributed photovoltaics on industrial and commercial rooftops. Generally speaking, the roofs of state-owned enterprises and some listed companies are high-quality roofs. It is a priority.” Yan Haijun further emphasized.
A few days ago, the United States announced that it would impose a 10% or 25% tariff on 200 billion US dollars of Chinese goods. In the tariff list for Chinese products, including PV inverters and AC components.
According to the reporter's understanding, from January to February 2018, only 7MW of PV modules were exported to the United States, and the number of exports declined.
In this regard, Bohai believes that the United States has announced a 10% or 25% tariff on 200 billion US dollars of Chinese goods including photovoltaics. Like the ZTE incident, first of all, one advantage is to wake us up and make us understand. Only by vigorously promoting innovation and having its own core technology can it not be "card necked", and this kind of practice in the United States can also objectively promote the transformation and upgrading of the photovoltaic industry. Secondly, the US approach makes us more aware of the importance of “not to put eggs in one basket” and to diversify the market trade area so that it can be most beneficial to the development of domestic industries, and not subject to one party or a certain market area. .
"531 New Deal" shows that innovation is the most important
On May 31, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Energy Bureau and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the "Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018" (hereinafter referred to as "531 New Deal"), and proposed not to arrange the construction scale of ordinary photovoltaic power plants in 2018, and arrange about 10GW. The scale of distributed construction requires a reasonable grasp of the pace of development and optimization of the scale of new construction of photovoltaic power generation.
The "531 New Deal" has been in place for more than two months. What impact has it had on the photovoltaic industry? Is the opportunity for the photovoltaic industry to outweigh the challenge or the challenge is greater than the opportunity? How should the company respond?
Min Haitao believes that the "531 New Deal" should be viewed from two angles.
First of all, from the perspective of industry development, policy changes are no longer normal. The international financial crisis in 2008 and the various restrictions on domestic PV in Europe and America in 2012 made the emerging photovoltaic industry difficult, in this case, to make photovoltaic The industry continues to develop healthily. Under the environment of encouraging new energy or renewable energy development, financial subsidies or tax reductions, the Chinese government has given certain subsidies for new energy development, which also reflects China’s responsibility for world climate change. And take responsibility. Photovoltaic technology is advancing, the cost of integrated power generation is decreasing, and subsidies are also inevitable.
Secondly, objectively speaking, in recent years, the photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly, and many companies have embraced and want to share a piece of it. Under this circumstance, it is necessary to introduce policies to prevent overcapacity, and thus the big waves of sand, so that enterprises that truly do photovoltaic innovation, technology upgrades, and product replacement benefits.
According to the reporter's understanding, after years of development, China's photovoltaic power generation has experienced the stages of growth, industrialization, and large-scale development. The current development needs to shift from scaling up to improving quality and efficiency, and advancing technological progress. From the perspective of healthy and sustainable development, we will focus on promoting technological progress, reducing power generation costs, reducing subsidy dependence, optimizing development scale, improving operational quality, promoting orderly development of the industry, and high-quality development. The implementation of the “531 New Deal” of photovoltaics objectively has a certain inhibitory effect on China's new installed capacity in 2018 and has an impact on the current profitability. However, in the new industry environment, photovoltaic high-cost enterprises gradually withdraw, and the market share is gradually concentrated to the dominant enterprises. This is also the basic idea for the development of photovoltaic power generation this year and in the future.
Zhai Haijun said that after the "531 New Deal", some enterprises have been struggling and difficult to sustain. These enterprises simply expand reproduction, do not engage in product innovation and technology research and development, and the current situation is not very good. They will be eliminated or merged sooner or later. . The “531 New Deal” has the greatest impact on these enterprises. For enterprises that are engaged in technological innovation and product upgrading, the opportunities are far greater than the challenges.
“Subsidy landslides are to force industrial transformation and upgrading, which is consistent with the construction of innovative countries that the country has been emphasizing. This is also part of the supply-side structural reform. There is a saying in the photovoltaic industry called technology rolling market, technology. Progress will lead to a significant increase in power generation efficiency, and the cost of integrated power generation will drop rapidly, thus accelerating the rapid arrival of PV parity.